Intuition in Disaters Decision Making
Name: ALEXANDRE DOS SANTOS CERQUEIRA
Publication date: 30/03/2020
Advisor:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| ELOÍSIO MOULIN DE SOUZA | Advisor * |
Examining board:
| Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| CÉSAR AUGUSTO TURETA DE MORAIS | Internal Examiner * |
| ELOÍSIO MOULIN DE SOUZA | Advisor * |
| MARILENE OLIVIER FERREIRA DE OLIVEIRA | External Examiner * |
| PABLO SILVA LIRA | External Examiner * |
Summary: Disasters are unforeseen events with high negative consequences, including the loss of life and property of organizations or communities, WHERE decisions are under pressure in a real scenario that changes suddenly. Earthquakes, tsunamis, fires and floods and barriers to fall due to torrential rains, are examples of natural disasters in which the Fire Department, the Civil
Defense, as well as other institutions and professionals, to provide assistance to people, in case of need quick, assertive and focused decision making within specific priorities. However, under pressure, it is difficult for human beings to be able to ration only within logic and reason, which often leads them to resort to intuition. Thus, the general objective of this study was to understand how the process of intuition occurs in decision making in natural disaster situations,
in which time and resources are limited. It was assumed, then, that the elements of the intuition process in decision making are knowledge, experience, task interpretation, the context of the environment and improvisation, based on the juxtaposition of the elements proposed by Dane
and Pratt, Salas, Rosen and Diaz Granados and Patterson and Eggleston. In methodological terms, semi-structured interviews were applied to data collection applied to officers of the Military Fire Brigade of Espírito Santo (CBMES) who worked in disasters and survey of documents. The results of the research revealed that the following factors are present in the process of intuition in decision making: personal attributes, environmental, adaptation /
flexibility, task integration and information asymmetry, and the central factor security /credibility. Personal attributes provide an automatic condition in the process of intuition in disasters, based on the stimuli of the environment, the information process and what has been learned previously. The environmental factor is the central element of improvisation on a recurring basis, given that it is connected to the knowledge acquired in crisis management systems and to the evolution of the disaster scenario. Adaptation / flexibility in the intuition
process reveals that it is imperative to maintain a constant review of the situation and decisions, as new facts and needs constantly appear. The integration factor had an influence on this process to select and integrate the tasks to be performed, in compliance with the standardized precepts.
In the case of disasters, there is evidence that information asymmetry influences the intuition process, given the scarcity of data and the need for reliable information to decide. Finally, the central factor, security / credibility, revealed an influence on the intuition process when the situation is of extreme pressure, as they occur in disasters, WHERE knowledge and experience
promote security to the individual and credibility of the decision maker before the team, in which the memory of previous experiences, in similar or more complex situations, customizes the manager's understanding of a given situation and the confidence of the team subordinate to acting in response actions. Thus, as a conclusion, it can be said that the greater the complexity
of the disaster, the more important it is to use intuition in the management of these events.
